Concerns about CT scan cancer risk have reached a critical point as new research projects alarming effects from radiation exposure. With CT scans now a major public health consideration, balancing diagnostic benefits and potential harm has never been more important for patients and providers.
The Escalating Use of CT Scans in America
“The challenge is ensuring CT scans are used only when the benefits outweigh the CT scan cancer risk, especially in children and young adults.”
American College of Radiology expert panel
CT scans are more common than ever in the United States. While the technology remains lifesaving and essential for accurate diagnoses, scientists are raising concerns. Even low doses of ionizing radiation from these scans could increase cancer risk at the population level.
The risk from a single CT scan is very low, and patients should not hesitate when a scan is necessary. The concern comes from the sheer number of scans performed, which may translate into significant numbers of future cancer cases.
Since 2007, annual CT examinations in the US have surged by more than 30 percent. This increase, combined with potentially unnecessary tests, is exposing people to avoidable radiation.
Startling New Research: 103,000 Future Cancer Cases
A study published in JAMA Internal Medicine in April 2025 projected that radiation from CT scans could lead to 103,000 new cancer cases. These cases are tied to scans performed in 2023 alone. If accurate, CT scans could account for about 5 percent of new cancer diagnoses in the US, similar to alcohol consumption (5.4%).
The estimates draw on assumptions and historical data from high-radiation events. While high doses are clearly linked to cancer, the evidence for low-level exposure remains debated. Much of the data comes from long-term studies of atomic bomb survivors and nuclear accident victims. For instance, among 25,000 Hiroshima survivors who received radiation equal to three or more CT scans, researchers observed a small but measurable rise in cancer risk.
“We cannot ignore that CT scan cancer risk, even if small for individuals, becomes significant when multiplied across millions of patients.”
JAMA Internal Medicine study authors
Research Methodology and Data Analysis
The team, led by UCSF epidemiologist Rebecca Smith-Bindman, used a comprehensive risk model. Data came from the UCSF International CT Dose Registry, which included anonymous records from 143 hospitals and outpatient facilities in 20 states between 2018 and 2020.
Key Research Components
- Patient Data Analysis: The team used the IMV CT Market Outlook Report for 2023, which showed 93 million CT exams on about 62 million patients.
- Demographics Breakdown: Children made up 3.3% of exams (4.2% of patients), while adults accounted for 96.7% (95.8% of patients). On average, patients had 1.5 exams.
- Dose Calculations: Organ-specific doses were estimated using advanced dosimetry that considered scan settings and patient size.
- Cancer Risk Projections: Lifetime cancer risk was calculated with the NCI’s RadRAT software, which uses BEIR VII models. Exams during the last year of life (10.6%) were excluded, since those patients would not develop radiation-induced cancer.
Most Vulnerable Populations and High-Risk Scans
Adults account for most CT scans and projected cancers (93,000 of 103,000). However, children face a higher risk per scan. Infants under one year show especially high risks for thyroid cancer, with girls at greater risk.
Projected cancer cases by type (from 2023 scans):
- Lung cancer: 22,400 cases
- Colon cancer: 8,700 cases
- Leukemia: 7,900 cases
- Bladder cancer: 7,100 cases
- Thyroid cancer: 7,000 cases (3,500 in children)
- Breast cancer: 5,700 cases
By body region, abdomen and pelvis scans caused the most projected adult cancers (37,500 cases, or 40%). In children, head CTs were linked to 5,100 projected cancers (53% of all pediatric cases). Full-body and spine scans also carried higher risks due to stronger radiation doses.
Why the Numbers Are Higher Than Before
This analysis projects three to four times more cancers than a 2009 study of CT exposures in 2007, which estimated 29,000 cases. Reasons include:
- A 30% rise in CT use since 2007
- Inclusion of multiphase scanning, which adds dose and occurs in 28.5% of exams
- More accurate dose modeling using exam-level data
- Better categorization of scan types and protocols
Balancing Benefits and Risks
“The challenge is ensuring CT scans are used only when the benefits outweigh the CT scan cancer risk, especially in children and young adults.”
American College of Radiology expert panel
Experts stress the need to weigh CT benefits against risks. The scans often save lives, especially for seriously ill patients where disease risks far outweigh radiation risks. Still, the high volume of low-value or unnecessary imaging is troubling.
Healthcare providers are urged to reduce dose, standardize protocols, and use CT only when clearly justified.
Addressing Public Concerns and Misconceptions
Several key points emerged:
- Perspective: The projection of 103,000 future cancers may sound alarming. But it should be compared with the 2 million cancer diagnoses made each year in the US.
- Technology Evolution: The study used dose data from 2018–2020. Newer techniques, such as photon-counting CT, may reduce exposure while improving image quality.
- Model Limitations: The BEIR VII model assumes a linear no-threshold risk, which some experts dispute. The study used a dose reduction factor (DDREF) of 1.5, but using 1 would project even more cancers (127,000).
Recommendations for Patients and Providers
For Patients
- Never avoid a medically necessary scan due to cancer fears
- Ask your doctor about alternatives when appropriate
- Inquire about dose-reduction methods
- Remember that the risk from a single scan is very low
For Providers
- Use CT only when clinically justified
- Apply dose optimization protocols
- Consider alternative imaging methods
- Stay updated on dose-reduction technologies
The debate on CT scan cancer risk highlights the importance of evidence-based medicine and radiation safety. The projections are concerning, but they should not overshadow the life-saving benefits CT scans provide when used appropriately.
REFERENCE
The study was published in JAMA Internal Medicine
